San Francisco
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
68  Alex Short JR 31:39
206  Matt Leach SR 32:17
311  Ryan Driscoll JR 32:35
314  Mohamed Aziz SO 32:35
801  Edward Shepherd JR 33:29
915  Quentin Purtzer SO 33:40
1,375  Caleb McLain FR 34:19
2,645  Connor Cavassa FR 37:13
National Rank #49 of 308
West Region Rank #10 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.1%
Most Likely Finish 11th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.2%
Top 10 in Regional 45.3%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Alex Short Matt Leach Ryan Driscoll Mohamed Aziz Edward Shepherd Quentin Purtzer Caleb McLain Connor Cavassa
Roy Griak Invitational 09/26 744 31:34 32:21 32:36 32:31 32:34 34:24
San Francisco State Invitational 10/09 37:04 34:59
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 762 31:41 32:15 32:20 32:26 33:20 33:22
West Coast Conference 10/31 875 31:42 32:04 33:48 32:57 34:00 33:54 33:49 37:39
West Region Championships 11/13 768 31:38 32:32 32:10 32:34 34:00 33:10 34:25





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.1% 24.3 564 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 10.5 283 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 5.1 12.0 25.2 31.3 19.6 3.6 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Short 65.1% 60.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8
Matt Leach 3.0% 123.8
Ryan Driscoll 0.2% 162.5
Mohamed Aziz 0.2% 141.5
Edward Shepherd 0.1% 217.0
Quentin Purtzer 0.1% 242.0
Caleb McLain 0.1% 249.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Short 13.5 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.4 4.1 5.0 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.2 4.8 5.3 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8
Matt Leach 39.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.4
Ryan Driscoll 56.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Mohamed Aziz 56.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
Edward Shepherd 105.0
Quentin Purtzer 113.7
Caleb McLain 151.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 4
5 0.2% 12.5% 0.0 0.1 0.0 5
6 0.6% 9.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 6
7 2.2% 2.2 7
8 5.1% 0.4% 0.0 5.1 0.0 8
9 12.0% 12.0 9
10 25.2% 25.2 10
11 31.3% 31.3 11
12 19.6% 19.6 12
13 3.6% 3.6 13
14 0.1% 0.1 14
15 0.0% 0.0 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0 0.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Minnesota 25.4% 1.0 0.3
Florida 8.5% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 2.1% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.5
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0